(3 votes, average: 5 out of 5)
Loading ...The Independent Catch-22.
In a recent Wall Street Journal article, there seemed to be a great deal of excitement in a Bloomberg run. However, I read something that sums up the Catch-22 for a good Independent candidate to succeed.
“There’s always going to be a number of people who say, ‘Before we stand up and start applauding, let’s see if this has any legs to it.”‘
So how is this supposed to get “legs” if everyone is just going to withhold his/her support to see if this has “legs?”
I support Mike Bloomberg for President because he’s the best person for the job. His credentials speak for themselves. The toughest challenge, however, will be to overcome the Independent Catch-22…and that will probably be the final deciding factor for him to run.
The one question I get asked more than anything else when I tout Bloomberg for President is, “Can he win?” Why is this the case? You’d think everyone would just vote for the candidate they like the best. However, it’s human nature to want to back a winner. There’s a reason why outside of Kansas City and Phoenix, you’ll rarely see anyone wearing a Royals baseball hat or Cardinals football jersey. Given the choice, people want to back winners, not losers. So if the perception is that you can’t win, chances are you’ll never even get a chance.
This is the fundamental problem with our two-party political system today. It is a challenge for any third-party candidate to shed that “spoiler” label. You need the “perfect storm” of political conditions for it to work. You need a well-funded candidate with an outstanding record. You need one of the major parties to be such a mess that nobody can agree on a candidate. You need the other party to have two Type-A personalities who are more interested in ripping each other to shreds rather than discussing the issues.
Check, check, and check.
For Mike Bloomberg to succeed, it is important to understand that people want to back a winner. Now while politics is in a lot of ways like a sports competition with its winners and losers, I think most people view themselves as spectators. The political process should be more analogous to citizens as participants rather than spectators. Getting voters to participate will help in the realization that this is the government of the People of the United States, not the government of Democrats and Republicans. I firmly believe that this will translate to more supporters of Mike Bloomberg’s pragmatic, results-oriented style rather than the one-sided “my way or the highway” ideologues that are currently dominating the major parties.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:04 pm
People that generally don’t vote need to believe that their vote counts and that is where I think an independent candidate, with a pragmatic, results oriented approach, can “rally” the troops.
The timing is right for a candidate that will look at solutions and common interests, instead of positions.
January 23rd, 2008 at 9:15 am
Can he win? I think that is something that only Mike Bloomberg can answer. Much the way he started a billion dollar financial services company, when sitting in front of Merril Lynch executives, he had to decide to answer Yes, he can deliver. Is there a guarantee? Absolutely not. Is he the best candidate and most qualified? Absolutely. The only way to answer that question is to throw the hat in the ring and fight like crazy to prove his value to the American people.
January 23rd, 2008 at 9:29 am
I think that the idea of “having legs” is a gradual process. Each successive tick of the political clock sees an event unfold that separates one group of people from the two party umbrellas. Those that vote will be looking elsewhere to find a candidate to support. The ideas that prevented them from supporting the lead candidate in their party in the first place will cause them to start thinking differently about this election.
The number of Bloomberg supporters that can rally together between now and election time is directly proportional to the sad state of our government divided by the number of disaffected voters from both parties plus the number of independent voters that see the need for change right now.
B/t = G/dv + IS equation for victory!
January 23rd, 2008 at 9:49 am
The I-wanna-be-a-winner-too trend is the worst thing in politics. The perception of winner is why so much effort and money is dumped into these early primaries.
The nice thing in Mike’s case is that when he announces, he’ll be able to do it with such force that he can create that winner perception on the spot. He won’t have to look like a beggar candidate living of the handouts of free media, like McCain has been doing of late.
In the end, there are at least two fundamental realities that many of us deeply involved in politics don’t like. These two things, in Mike’s case work to our advantage. They are:
1) No matter who you are, and no matter how experienced you may be, it takes A LOT of money to break onto the national stage.
2) No matter how much hub-bub is generated by these early primaries and all the stories that people like us follow, the vast majority of America still makes their decision based on the televised debates at the end of this year. As long as Mike appears on that stage, he’s a peer to the other contenders. And he’ll take it from there
January 23rd, 2008 at 11:20 am
Perception is 90% of politics. And Mike despite all his money will HAVE TO MAKE THE CASE. my formula from the gitgo as GP and Phil can attest has been I-C-B Issues-Candidate-Branding! That is the key to attracting people to get to the initial 15% threshold to get him into the debates and people will give due legit consideration to his alternative.
He will have to provide a framework on HOW he would adress the Issues - no getting around that! He will have to demonstrtae he is personally a great person whom people could visualize AS President. And he will have to have some sort of Branding (can’t sell a product without good branding). centrist Branding and creating a good solid centrist Umbrella of people, organizations, and stand on issues will be key.
All will not be easy and will require much much hard slogging and soil-tilling. But all I-C-B will be necessary IF Mike will be able to close the deal and govern effectively!