(1 votes, average: 5 out of 5)
Loading ...Mike Bloomberg Polls Well In California!
A new poll out of California suggests that Mike Bloomberg would be well on his way to winning the state, should he choose the enter the race! The poll indicates that 25% of the public would consider voting for him and he hasn’t even announced. 62% of the state has said that they would not consider voting for him, however, those numbers are evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.
This is precisely the breakdown we have projected, with approximately one-third of the populace identifying as strongly Republican, one-third strongly Democratic, and one-third independent. With 13% of Californians being undecided, a 4% margin of error, and two very polarizing figures likely to come out of the Democratic and Republican primaries - the preliminary data suggest that Mike Bloomberg would do very well in the Sunshine State! All this is not to mention that Arnold hasn’t endorsed anyone yet either! This poll also cohers with a reported statement by Kevin Sheekey (the Mayors would be campaign manager), that 19% of the vote is the floor not the ceiling.
The newspaper that conducted the poll (SacBee), interpreted the results in the negative; however, they gravely missed the mark. In a three way contest, all Mike Bloomberg needs is a plurality of approximately 34% to win California, because their electoral college is winner take all! Again, this is great news for Mike Bloomberg’s supporters everywhere! (See the full results here bloombergsourceprod_affiliate4.pdf)
January 25th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Your 34% statistic is wrong. You’re assuming an equal distribution of votes between the other two parties… which is pretty unlikely in California.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Actually, that’s precisely what the poll said. There was only a 2% difference between Democrats and Republicans.
January 25th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
Jack is right. Consider Democrat 40%, Bloomberg 35%, Republican 25%, for example.
He doesn’t have much of a chance if only 25% are willing to even consider voting for him. To fix this, he just needs to combat the spoiler perception, show people he’s in it to win and that he can.
January 26th, 2008 at 12:27 am
Let’s keep this in perspective. Bloomberg isn’t even a candidate yet and he’s still polling at 25% in CA. Considering that McCain went from unelectable to favorite in a couple of months according to the “polls” - I don’t put a lot of stock in these polls until he decides to run and he gets introduced to the American public.
January 26th, 2008 at 5:53 am
This poll is admittedly a small sampling. What I found interesting was that even though 62% said that they would not consider him, only 33% thought that he should not run. I echo the sentiment that there is a lot of room for movement. BTW, these poll figures are also without a Swartzenegger endorsement.
January 26th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
In 1998, in Minnesota, Independent candidate for governor Jesse Ventura polled about 10%. After the first TV debate, when those who are NOT involved in politics 24/7/365 heard him speak his rating went to about 20%. By the third debate it was a three way tie. And then he won.
The truth is that you can put all the analysis by the political junkies aside. As long as Mike Bloomberg is in the televised debates and people hear him speak, it’s a winnable game. Futher, the average vote has NOT been able to avoid hearing about politics this year. They hear endless accusations and petty bickering. After all that, I suspect a lot of people would be ready to hear a new message from someone as talented and credible as Mike Bloomberg.
The majority of people don’t know Mike yet. They haven’t really heard him speak. That’s all going to change if/when he runs.
In short, forget these early polls. It’s just scare tactics by the two parties that don’t want real competition. You don’t hear them criticizing Greens, Libertarians, or the possibility of Nader running again. Why is that?
It’s because Mike is the real threat, and it’s because Mike is the better candidate.
January 26th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
Hey GP - how was Jesse as a Governor? I used to hear people make fun of Minnesota for electing an ex-Wrastler to the highest political position in the state. But you know what - every time I heard him speak he really made a ton of common sense. My favorite quote of his I still use to this day - a sarcastic jibe that “the two party system is great - we get one more choice then Communist Russia.”
(Pointless aside - I was a big fan of his when I was a kid - I always rooted for the heels and he was my fav. I even got his autograph once)
January 28th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
He did pretty good, actually. He did what he said he’d do right off the bat, which was to lower MN license plate tab fees. They were somewhere in the neighborhood of $300-$400 per year around then. Everyone hated that.
His only downside was that he couldn’t hold his tongue against the media people and got into these petty fights with them. He eventually got burned out on that (had thinner skin than we hoped) and so he didn’t run again.
But he was pretty impressive for someone that was out of the entertainment community.
In any case, if one could see his debate performance, one becomes a believer in the centrist approach. It was a perfect strategy and was devastating to the two-party system. He had them both looking like fools because he’d trap int situations where they had to avoid insulting their respective base. But by not doing so they looked like fools to those of us who are keen on common sense.
Mike could use this same approach, but with 1000x the sophistication.